I seem to be the odd one out on this one but I’m sticking to my guns… interest rates can only go up.  This week should be a defining moment in this subprime mess… just as soon as the Fed makes its decision.

I’m expecting the rates to be held while the market is doing otherwise.  Have you ever seen a spoiled child react when they get that rare rejection?  We might be seeing a market ‘fit’ sooner that later.

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Back in the late 90’s and early 2000 the rage was making a quick buck in the stock market. You could throw a dart at a moving stock ticker and still make money. Authors, talk show hosts, and other ‘experts’ abounded in their availability and willingness to share their winning methods. Day trading became the new buzzword, as a new breed of its constituents threw caution to the wind and staked their fortunes on the concept that profit was just an abstract idea and that it created itself out of thin air. (more…)

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President Truman must be rolling in his grave.  We have become a society enthralled with the notion that responsibility lies…… way over there.  Burn yourself on HOT coffee at McDonalds?  Easy, just sue them for serving you hot coffee.  Suffer hearing loss from listening to your iPod to loud?  No problem, stick it to Apple for creating ADJUSTABLE volume controls. (more…)

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The Times reports in this article that you can now make an arbitrage profit off of all those pennies and nickels lying around… in theory that is. Increasing metals prices has driven the value of pennies and nickels to more than what you will get for them at the local washeteria. In fact, nickels can be worth up to 7 cents – that’s a 20% premium! (more…)

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The New York Times just published an article that could be a great case study for those clamoring towards protectionist policies.

Every time I decide to blog something about this issue I can’t get over how anyone could take issue with unrestricted trade policies. It takes acute short sightedness and a very narrow interest to do so.

What do protectionists want? Well, they want to protect a small group’s interests at the expense of everyone else. For example, GM and Ford workers argue that they are entitled to a job, regardless of whether or not they can work as competitively and cheaply as workers at Toyota or Nissan. Not only do they feel that Ford and GM owe them a job, but they should be paid handsomely for it as well. In the case of GM, if the company has trouble finding people to buy these cars at inflated prices, these prima donna workers are entitled to participate in the Jobs Bank Program, whereby they get to receive full pay and benefits regardless of whether they have work or not. Who do you think is paying the bill?

In a nutshell, protectionists feel that everyone should pay more for a Tahoe or Explorer simply because some workers want to shield themselves from the competitive pressures of the labor market. Protectionists like to use fancy terms like ‘exporting American jobs’ or make one-sided statements like we will hear a ‘giant sucking sound’ as American jobs are moved out of the country, but the truth is that we benefit in many ways.

What gets me is that they are ironically protecting themselves from any form of self improvement. Our economy, and anyone else’s for that matter, depends on increasing productivity gains to raise the standard of living while at the same time staving off inflationary pressures. These productivity gains essentially allow firms to make a product or provide a service at the lowest cost per worker hour.

What protectionists often fail to mention is that many overseas competitors actually create jobs in the U.S. that were supposedly exported. Using the auto industry again as an example, Toyota and Nissan have invested billions in the South to build new plants. What Toyota and Nissan and others like Mercedes Benz are NOT doing is creating these jobs in places up north like Detroit. Gary N. Chaison of Clark University in Worcester, Mass. is quoted in the Times article saying that ‘These international companies want a fresh start — not in a town like Detroit, with a long history in the auto industry, but in an empty field where people appreciate them.”

Toyota must be doing something right because it is now the number 2 automaker and is not far behind GM. Toyota is making a profit and GM is hemorrhaging cash. Toyota makes cars that people want at attractive prices and GM is doling out discounts as incentives to attract buyers. What the two automakers do have in common is that both are unapologetic for their performance. However, if I were Rick Wagoner I would reconsider this.

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I’d like to begin a conversation about the outlook for global economic stability over the next decade. Specifically, I have in mind analyzing a group of individual countries and considering the possible outcomes that would result from a severe economic slowdown or failure of each – independently. What would happen if China ran into serious trouble? What impact might the negative national savings rate in the U.S. have on the global economy if it cripples the U.S. economy? (more…)

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Lower Gas Prices! Yes! Ok many of us have noticed that gas prices have come down significantly over the last weeks; or at least some of us have noticed that it is costing us between $5 and $15 LESS than usual – depending on whether your car likes to sip gas or knockout a gallon or two every street light.

(more…)

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Some random thoughts…

How do you quantify a human’s ability to create? To Innovate? Within the framework of employment, how does the neoclassical view account for this value?

If I were a manager with a neoclassical economic view, I would probably analyze the marginal costs and benefits of laying one employee off. I would do the same with a varying number just the same.

The Library of Economics & Liberty mentions that, “a theory that explains the layoff decision by the changing tastes of managers for employees with particular characteristics will not be a neoclassical theory”.

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I have to take a few minutes from my studying to comment on the recent news about the big three automakers’ sales numbers.

GM, Ford, and Chrysler have all posted significant declines in last month’s sales compared to last year because of higher fuel prices AND higher interest rates. For those of you who do not understand what this means, higher fuel prices mean that consumers want MORE EFFICIENT cars and higher interest rates means that consumers want CHEAPER cars because the more you borrow at higher interest rates, the more is costs you. (more…)

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The relationship between arbitrage opportunity and conditional probability appears to be so straightforward that it may seem dull to dig any deeper; but I consider it interesting and quite revealing.

What is arbitrage? The concept of arbitrage is very simple: profit from buying something at one price and selling it simultaneously at a different price. The key is that you are capitalizing on a price differential. This profit is sometimes called a free lunch or risk-less profit. We see arbitrage every day and probably never even recognize it.

What is conditional probability? It sounds intimidating but it is actually simple and straightforward. Probability is simply the chances of a given event occurring out of a possible set of outcomes. Note that possible is an important word here. If I flip a coin, I know that the only two possible outcomes are head or tails. Conditional probability means that the chances of one event occurring depend on the chances of a prior event happening. For example, if I have a deck of cards and pull two face cards out, then I know that the chances of me pulling another face card have changed.

Going back to the relationship, think about it. It is just something to ponder. Arbitrage is the act of using information that the market has not yet adjusted for and profiting from it. If people are buying King Kong DVDs on EBay for $25 and I know that I can buy them at Wal-Mart for $15, then I will exploit that arbitrage opportunity and make a risk-less profit of $10 per DVD. Not bad. Probability, as does arbitrage, relies on the availability of information. The probability of an outcome occurring, as is the ability to make an arbitrage profit, is dependent upon what we know. As information changes, so does the probability.

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